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Tuesday, May 24, 2005
Cause I've been hearing so much about it lately...
Matt, remember that time at Sibbalds when we were lying on the rocks with Tommy, and I was talking about how we only had like 40 years before humans destroy the world? You know, I don't take it back. We've already destroyed it... only no one's noticed yet.
Sorry guys, but climate change is already happening, bigtime, and all the people who know are shitting their pants trying to figure out why no one else seem to care. No one's correlating what they do with what's happening. And the way we're going, we're damaging the planet's natural healing. If the ocean becomes acidic with CO2, the bacteria die. We're cutting down the boreal forests (which absorb more CO2 than the rainforests) and burning them (which releases the CO2). There go our two major carbon sinks. (And just cause I'm trying to scare people, we're in the middle of the biggest mass extinction, ever. Bigger than the dinosaurs.)
Global warming? Hole in the ozone? Smog? Acid rain? Well, with the exception of global warming, that's all been shown to be man made (anthropogenic). I can tell you the chemical reactions that take place, if you really want. And there's so much more that no one talks about. There's already some islands with deals to evacuate to Australia when their islands flood. They know it's coming. Want to hear about the inuits? The weather's so unpredictable, many of them die from falling through the ice cause the can't tell when it's safe anymore. Farmers are noticing a difference, their crops are either getting flooded or dried up. Storms are getting worse. Weather extremes are becoming apparent. And this is just the beginning, there's enough inertia to continue the change, even if the world just stopped.
but what about the Kyoto protocol? It's just been ratified, so it's actually happening, right? Yup! It is! Half the world is going to try to reduce their emissions below 1990 levels. Though this isn't enough to make a difference, by any strectch (though it's a good stepping stone in the right direction). The US and China aren't part Kyoto. Something about bad for economy or something... The US claims to have it's own program in place, says they'll reduce their emissions by 20%, per dollar revenue or something. No one's there to make sure they do it. And since the economy is constantly growing, even though they're getting more efficient, they're emissions are still increasing.
China's building some new coal plants. They're not worried about Kyoto, and the smog wont get them. By the time the emissions become smog, it'll be hitting... BC. And then there's the population explosion... the number of people keeps growing. Even if they were to say they'd cut emissions per person, they'd still have tons more per year!
What's Canada doing? Well, lets hope we can meet our Kyoto promise! We have some of the worst polluters! Refining, Smelting, Pulp and paper, all that turning natural resources into something useful stuff. We're going to buy about a billion dollars worth of emissions credits, cause we can't cut enough! Heck, we're going for the "lowered emissions through efficiency" not the "lowered emissions through cuts" which is the only "environmentally sustainable" way to go, but we gotta talk $ first.
I *do* give Canada credit, though. We're putting a lot of research into cleaner technologies. We're using a lot of hydro power (like Niagra falls), though this can be an environmental hazard in destroying ecosystems by building dams. We're going for wind energy, solar... but we'll never feasibly be able to harness enough of that. We're building a lot of nuclear stations, while phasing out coal.
Now Coal...
Coal plants are being touted as the next big thing, next to nuclear. If you burn it properly, it burns clean. That means no bad stuff in the air to make smog and acid rain, but lots of CO2. There's stuff out there to trap CO2, and it can be injected into the ground. This is, unfortunatly, a bit too expensive for most places.
Hydrogen? Well how do you get this? Electrolysis (running electricity through water to separate it into hydrogen and water.) That takes electricity, and where do you get that from? And then what about all the efficiency losses?
Nuclear fission? We still have the hazardous waste to deal with. Also, it's not super safe... say the likelyhood of an accident is once every 10,000 years, and you build 1000 stations... accident once every 10 years. There's a fusion reactor being built in either France or Japan, probably France, but that'll take years to build and it's only experimental. Fission, you split big atoms to get energy. Fusion, you smash small atoms together to make bigger ones. It's how the sun makes energy, but it's so hot, it'll melt any container you put it in. They need a huge magnetic field to keep it in, and previous attempts at this have failed. Cold fusion still hasn't been shown to work.
As for oil and gas? Heh heh heh... this deserves it's own rant.
Did you know we've used about half of the oil supplies since the beginning of time? (Oil, not coal. We have lots of coal still.) And we're using more and more every year. Say last year we used 4 units of oil... this year we used 6. So many scientists say "we have hundreds of years left", assuming next year we use 6, and the year after. Some say "we have dozens of years left", assuming next year we use 8. More likely, next year we'll use 10. Eventually we wont be able to find more oil supplies, and we'll just run out. We find more oil, say another huge supply... that'll just add a couple more years before we run out for real. Chances are we'll officially run out in our lifetime, with the big "holy shit, where did it all go?" happening in the next decade. Want proof? Look at gas prices. Look at Bush scrambling to secure as many oil sources as he can (WMD, my ass). Look at the big fuss all the papers make about finding new sources of oil. All energy is getting expensive, isn't it? We can't make enough for demand (hence the blackout). Remember when they took the cap off energy prices? At they highest point they'd nearly quadrupled! I guess it didn't help that it was one of the warmest summers on record, and that no one really knows how much their energy is worth. (The Ontario government pays a little under half for you right now. Think tax dollars.)
I guess coming off the fossil fuel binge will be one way to reduce CO2 emissions, but I'm not convinced. When they do fully take the cap of prices, I'm sure that might help, too, when people are more conscious of what they're using. A general rule of thumb is that 1/3 energy (and emissions) goes to (comes from) transportation, 1/3 from residential/commercial, and 1/3 from industries. That's nearly 2/3 we're responsible for!
Urg... I'm done ranting. Conclusions: learn about what YOU are doing, and talk to other people, make sure they know. "Knowing is half the battle", right?
Heh... we *do* have a battle ahead of us. The analogy works!
Sorry guys, but climate change is already happening, bigtime, and all the people who know are shitting their pants trying to figure out why no one else seem to care. No one's correlating what they do with what's happening. And the way we're going, we're damaging the planet's natural healing. If the ocean becomes acidic with CO2, the bacteria die. We're cutting down the boreal forests (which absorb more CO2 than the rainforests) and burning them (which releases the CO2). There go our two major carbon sinks. (And just cause I'm trying to scare people, we're in the middle of the biggest mass extinction, ever. Bigger than the dinosaurs.)
Global warming? Hole in the ozone? Smog? Acid rain? Well, with the exception of global warming, that's all been shown to be man made (anthropogenic). I can tell you the chemical reactions that take place, if you really want. And there's so much more that no one talks about. There's already some islands with deals to evacuate to Australia when their islands flood. They know it's coming. Want to hear about the inuits? The weather's so unpredictable, many of them die from falling through the ice cause the can't tell when it's safe anymore. Farmers are noticing a difference, their crops are either getting flooded or dried up. Storms are getting worse. Weather extremes are becoming apparent. And this is just the beginning, there's enough inertia to continue the change, even if the world just stopped.
but what about the Kyoto protocol? It's just been ratified, so it's actually happening, right? Yup! It is! Half the world is going to try to reduce their emissions below 1990 levels. Though this isn't enough to make a difference, by any strectch (though it's a good stepping stone in the right direction). The US and China aren't part Kyoto. Something about bad for economy or something... The US claims to have it's own program in place, says they'll reduce their emissions by 20%, per dollar revenue or something. No one's there to make sure they do it. And since the economy is constantly growing, even though they're getting more efficient, they're emissions are still increasing.
China's building some new coal plants. They're not worried about Kyoto, and the smog wont get them. By the time the emissions become smog, it'll be hitting... BC. And then there's the population explosion... the number of people keeps growing. Even if they were to say they'd cut emissions per person, they'd still have tons more per year!
What's Canada doing? Well, lets hope we can meet our Kyoto promise! We have some of the worst polluters! Refining, Smelting, Pulp and paper, all that turning natural resources into something useful stuff. We're going to buy about a billion dollars worth of emissions credits, cause we can't cut enough! Heck, we're going for the "lowered emissions through efficiency" not the "lowered emissions through cuts" which is the only "environmentally sustainable" way to go, but we gotta talk $ first.
I *do* give Canada credit, though. We're putting a lot of research into cleaner technologies. We're using a lot of hydro power (like Niagra falls), though this can be an environmental hazard in destroying ecosystems by building dams. We're going for wind energy, solar... but we'll never feasibly be able to harness enough of that. We're building a lot of nuclear stations, while phasing out coal.
Now Coal...
Coal plants are being touted as the next big thing, next to nuclear. If you burn it properly, it burns clean. That means no bad stuff in the air to make smog and acid rain, but lots of CO2. There's stuff out there to trap CO2, and it can be injected into the ground. This is, unfortunatly, a bit too expensive for most places.
Hydrogen? Well how do you get this? Electrolysis (running electricity through water to separate it into hydrogen and water.) That takes electricity, and where do you get that from? And then what about all the efficiency losses?
Nuclear fission? We still have the hazardous waste to deal with. Also, it's not super safe... say the likelyhood of an accident is once every 10,000 years, and you build 1000 stations... accident once every 10 years. There's a fusion reactor being built in either France or Japan, probably France, but that'll take years to build and it's only experimental. Fission, you split big atoms to get energy. Fusion, you smash small atoms together to make bigger ones. It's how the sun makes energy, but it's so hot, it'll melt any container you put it in. They need a huge magnetic field to keep it in, and previous attempts at this have failed. Cold fusion still hasn't been shown to work.
As for oil and gas? Heh heh heh... this deserves it's own rant.
Did you know we've used about half of the oil supplies since the beginning of time? (Oil, not coal. We have lots of coal still.) And we're using more and more every year. Say last year we used 4 units of oil... this year we used 6. So many scientists say "we have hundreds of years left", assuming next year we use 6, and the year after. Some say "we have dozens of years left", assuming next year we use 8. More likely, next year we'll use 10. Eventually we wont be able to find more oil supplies, and we'll just run out. We find more oil, say another huge supply... that'll just add a couple more years before we run out for real. Chances are we'll officially run out in our lifetime, with the big "holy shit, where did it all go?" happening in the next decade. Want proof? Look at gas prices. Look at Bush scrambling to secure as many oil sources as he can (WMD, my ass). Look at the big fuss all the papers make about finding new sources of oil. All energy is getting expensive, isn't it? We can't make enough for demand (hence the blackout). Remember when they took the cap off energy prices? At they highest point they'd nearly quadrupled! I guess it didn't help that it was one of the warmest summers on record, and that no one really knows how much their energy is worth. (The Ontario government pays a little under half for you right now. Think tax dollars.)
I guess coming off the fossil fuel binge will be one way to reduce CO2 emissions, but I'm not convinced. When they do fully take the cap of prices, I'm sure that might help, too, when people are more conscious of what they're using. A general rule of thumb is that 1/3 energy (and emissions) goes to (comes from) transportation, 1/3 from residential/commercial, and 1/3 from industries. That's nearly 2/3 we're responsible for!
Urg... I'm done ranting. Conclusions: learn about what YOU are doing, and talk to other people, make sure they know. "Knowing is half the battle", right?
Heh... we *do* have a battle ahead of us. The analogy works!
Comments:
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I interpret that as we always cried "wolf", so no one listens now.
Ecochallenge: I got 5 of 10, not just 3! 3,4,7,8,10. Take the One-Tonne Challenge. National average is 5.5, I'm 2.2. Getting off another tonne is a challenge. (Lots of $ for renos needed.)
Ecochallenge: I got 5 of 10, not just 3! 3,4,7,8,10. Take the One-Tonne Challenge. National average is 5.5, I'm 2.2. Getting off another tonne is a challenge. (Lots of $ for renos needed.)
First: congrats girls! I'm proud you're both so far below the national average! :) And I don't know what a lot of that stuff is, either, so I said I didn't have it. :)
Next: I wrote that really really late at night, and was full of caffeine, and had just read like 25 articles about energy in canada, and most of them were all like "we aren't doing anything! What's wrong with you people?!" And I have a prof who continually points out that we're all screwed. If that explains anything.
Last: I *still* think we're screwed, but we'll handle it. As you say, we always do. This time we have more people and more developing countries, and more accurate data. We'll get through, but there'll be big big changes. I just disagree with the point that people actually care about the environment. I know a lot of people that claim they do, but drive to the corner store. And university is supposedly where you'll see that sort of thing less. And there are still lots of people who say they don't care. And, on the whole, people are massively uneducated on the subject.
Next: I wrote that really really late at night, and was full of caffeine, and had just read like 25 articles about energy in canada, and most of them were all like "we aren't doing anything! What's wrong with you people?!" And I have a prof who continually points out that we're all screwed. If that explains anything.
Last: I *still* think we're screwed, but we'll handle it. As you say, we always do. This time we have more people and more developing countries, and more accurate data. We'll get through, but there'll be big big changes. I just disagree with the point that people actually care about the environment. I know a lot of people that claim they do, but drive to the corner store. And university is supposedly where you'll see that sort of thing less. And there are still lots of people who say they don't care. And, on the whole, people are massively uneducated on the subject.
I think the problem is a number of things, some of which you touched on:
1) People (which includes us) put priority on money and comfort; if being more environmentally friendly is not economically 'worth it' or is inconvenient for us, we have less of a desire to do it. This has to change (the societal focus on money) before MAJOR alterations can be made on how we deal with the environment.
2) Scientists are always screaming (for example) "the world is going to be unlivable in 10 years!!" etc etc. They make their claims sound more dire than they actually are, and unfortunately they lose ALL credibility, when in fact their arguments DO have merit.
While I will agree with your argument that we are not nearly as concerned with our planet as we should be, I disagree that there is no hope. Have you ever heard the saying "Necessity is the mother of Invention"? I KNOW oil will run out, and when it does, just watch how long it takes to develope a new, CLEAN form of power for cars (and other things). There's no sense of URGENCY right now (though I wish there was!) We are not doomed, although it will undoubtedly get pretty rough when we run out of things we take for granted (oil, clean air, etc). Once that urgency is there (ie. people dying by the thousands, no cars running at all), it won't take long for things to change. Unfortunately, it WILL get pretty bad before that happens.
1) People (which includes us) put priority on money and comfort; if being more environmentally friendly is not economically 'worth it' or is inconvenient for us, we have less of a desire to do it. This has to change (the societal focus on money) before MAJOR alterations can be made on how we deal with the environment.
2) Scientists are always screaming (for example) "the world is going to be unlivable in 10 years!!" etc etc. They make their claims sound more dire than they actually are, and unfortunately they lose ALL credibility, when in fact their arguments DO have merit.
While I will agree with your argument that we are not nearly as concerned with our planet as we should be, I disagree that there is no hope. Have you ever heard the saying "Necessity is the mother of Invention"? I KNOW oil will run out, and when it does, just watch how long it takes to develope a new, CLEAN form of power for cars (and other things). There's no sense of URGENCY right now (though I wish there was!) We are not doomed, although it will undoubtedly get pretty rough when we run out of things we take for granted (oil, clean air, etc). Once that urgency is there (ie. people dying by the thousands, no cars running at all), it won't take long for things to change. Unfortunately, it WILL get pretty bad before that happens.
# posted by 
: 2:19 a.m.
: 2:19 a.m.
Matt: "Necessity is the mother of Invention" is the WRONG thing to say.
1) It can be interpreted as "Someone else will fix it"
2) Any energy forms coming in to replace oil should already have it's roots by now if it wants to go big by the time the oil crisis hits. Hydrogen is "the thing" right now, but it'll go out of style soon. Bio-fuels will maybe be the next big thing, but I don't know too much about that yet. Where do they get the energy to process it in the first place? Again, Nuclear and Coal are the way it appears we'll replace oil for now. And it appears the US is talking about pulling out its 1.2 BILLION dollars on the FUSION reactor. (They say they're short of cash, I think it's cause it's not getting built where they want it.)
1) It can be interpreted as "Someone else will fix it"
2) Any energy forms coming in to replace oil should already have it's roots by now if it wants to go big by the time the oil crisis hits. Hydrogen is "the thing" right now, but it'll go out of style soon. Bio-fuels will maybe be the next big thing, but I don't know too much about that yet. Where do they get the energy to process it in the first place? Again, Nuclear and Coal are the way it appears we'll replace oil for now. And it appears the US is talking about pulling out its 1.2 BILLION dollars on the FUSION reactor. (They say they're short of cash, I think it's cause it's not getting built where they want it.)
Odd timing I was reading an article today about how China is the second highsest in pollution to US and 7 of the top 10 polluters are chinese cities. I got crazy high but I commute 20km to work each day. So I got 6.8 but I am using lindsay as my balance out because lindsay never drives anywhere.
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# posted by : 7:46 p.m.
: 7:46 p.m.<< Home
